In October 2026, the agarwood industry is advancing on two fronts simultaneously: "record-high prices at the collectors' end, and large-scale cost reduction at the cultivation end." On one end, top-grade qinan(kyara) closed at the tens-of-millions-of-HK-dollars level at auction; on the other end, the main Hainan production areas are using policy and property rights confirmation to push planting costs down and capacity up. This article reviews this month's four key developments, with data tables and FAQ.
In October 2026, the agarwood industry is advancing on two fronts simultaneously: "record-high prices at the collectors' end, and large-scale cost reduction at the cultivation end." On one end, top-grade qinan(kyara) closed at the tens-of-millions-of-HK-dollars level at auction; on the other end, the main Hainan production areas are using policy and property rights confirmation to push planting costs down and capacity up. This article reviews this month's four key developments, with data tables and FAQ.
On October 6, at China Guardian Hong Kong 2026 Autumn Auctions "Guanhua—Fine Literati Works and Classical Furniture" sale, a piece of **Vietnamese raw-formation qinan(kyara) mountain** weighing about 2,500 grams (five jin) sold for **HK$15.477 million**, with the hammer price within the estimate range of HK$15–18 million.
Industry interpretation: this reflects that market bidding for top-grade incense material is becoming more rational—no longer blindly chasing highs, but the hard-currency nature of scarce large pieces remains solid. This qinan(kyara) mountain is 37 cm tall, with a soft and mellow texture, fine long oil lines, and a refreshing coolness; the hooked-incense surface has casual yet aesthetic gullies, and it is regarded as an ultimate work blending incense material with viewing-stone aesthetics.
> Data anchor: according to public reports, in the same month a 1,863-gram qinan(kyara) ornament in the Japanese market sold for about JPY 255 million (about RMB 11.3 million including commission), again confirming the scarcity of kilogram-level complete large qinan(kyara) pieces.稀缺。
According to monitoring by the **Xinhua Index (Xinhua Finance database)**, as of July 2026, the Hainan agarwood seedling price index reported **548.36 points**, down 285.46 points from the previous period, a decline of **34.24%**; down 451.64 points from the base period, a decline of 45.16%. Average price changes for major varieties are as follows:
| Variety | July average price (yuan/plant) | vs. previous period | |---|---|---| | Aquilaria sinensis | 3.60 | −33.33% (−1.80) | | Honggu Aoshen | 15.50 | +4.49% (+0.67) | | Xiangmai | 14.50 | −7.45% (−1.17) | | Shuxinyou | 16.75 | −16.25% (−3.25) | | Tangjie | Not sold | — |
The decline in the seedling price index is mainly affected by periodic oversupply and the pace of planting expansion; it is normal fluctuation in the industry's scaling process and does not represent the price trend of finished incense material.
Hainan's Qiongzhong Li and Miao Autonomous County had two landmark moves this month:
Qiongzhong's total agarwood planting area has exceeded 30,000 mu, covering 10 townships, building a full industry chain from seedlings and planting to deep processing and trading.
According to China News Service, the industrial park of the Hainan Agarwood and Chenxiang Research and Experimental Development Center in Yunlong Town, Qiongshan District, Haikou City, welcomed Middle Eastern merchants for negotiations. As early as January this year, the park reached a **2-ton agarwood raw material procurement cooperation** with Saudi Arabia, achieving a "zero breakthrough" for Qiongshan agarwood in opening up the Middle East market. This year Qiongshan District plans to add 400 mu of agarwood planting, creating a demonstration zone integrating primary, secondary, and tertiary industries that combines provenance protection, science education, and health resort.
**Q1: The seedling price index has dropped—does that mean agarwood is no longer valuable?** No. Seedling prices reflect the "sapling" segment, which is heavily influenced by the pace of planting expansion; whereas finished incense materials, especially wild/qinan(kyara)-grade large pieces, are scarce long-term due to resource depletion, and their pricing system does not move in sync with the seedling end.
**Q2: Why can qinan(kyara) fetch tens of millions of yuan at auction?** Qinan(kyara) is a special variant of agarwood, requiring the simultaneous fulfillment of multiple conditions: tree injury, infection by specific fungi, unique soil and water, and decades of aging; the industry has a saying that "ten agarwoods yield one qi(kyara)"; large, complete pieces are extremely rare, and their aroma layers are irreplaceable, making them hard currency at auctions.
**Q3: Will the expansion of Hainan cultivation make agarwood "cheap"?** Large-scale cultivation mainly lowers the cost of entry-level products in the artificially induced agarwood category (such as hundred-yuan-level qinan(kyara) bracelets), making them affordable to more people; however, wild, sinking grade, and qinan(kyara)-grade aged materials remain high-priced due to resource depletion, and the market shows "polarization."
> **Data sources**: Xinhua Index/Xinhua Finance Database, China News Service, Nanhai Net, Artron.net, China Guardian Hong Kong, Hainan Daily. (This article is an industry overview; prices and policies are subject to official releases and do not constitute trading advice.)议。）
> **Further reading**: To systematically understand how agarwood forms, see "The Principles of Agarwood Formation and Artificial Agarwood Induction Techniques"; to learn how to identify genuine and fake qinan(kyara), see "Six Types of Fakes in Agarwood Authentication" and "In-Depth Analysis of Agarwood Oil-Soaking and Oil-Injection." Fiction lovers can read the incense-themed serial "Ten Years of Agarwood."连载。
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